Confronting Unknown Unknowns

By Barnaby Marsh, PhD

Financial markets are built on expectations about the future, yet history repeatedly reminds us how unreliable those expectations can be. Grand forecasts often miss the mark, while transformative shifts—from technological breakthroughs to geopolitical events—arrive from directions few anticipate. This article examines why investors and institutions struggle with “unknown unknowns,” how human nature and predictive tools reinforce blind spots, and why markets so often react only in hindsight—after uncertainty has already reshaped the landscape.