Retirement Management Journal - Volume 14, Number 1, 2025
The 4-Percent Rule Was Never Failproof
On the Folly of Fixed Rate Withdrawals
Admin
This paper takes a critical look at the 4-percent withdrawal rule, tracing flaws in the historical data behind it and presenting new evidence that 4-percent withdrawals could not have been sustained by real investors, even within William Bengen's original period. It examines the conditions under which any fixed withdrawal rate succeeds or fails and finds that shifting to more conservative allocations offers little protection when conditions turn adverse.
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About the Retirement Management Journal
The peer-reviewed Retirement Management Journal promotes academic research and innovative thinking across the world of retirement-income planning and management, elevating topics directly related to the Retirement Management Advisor® (RMA®) curriculum. Each issue features a Visionaries Series interview with retirement planning authorities and experts from industry-leading firms.
