---
title: The Expected Return of Bonds
description: This paper examines whether a bond’s yield to maturity can serve as a reliable proxy for expected returns and the conditions under which the approach works best.
image: https://content.investmentsandwealth.org/hubfs/JIC24-1-article5.png
---

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Journal of Investment Consulting - Volume 24, Number 1, 2025

# The Expected Return of Bonds

Admin

Investors commonly use a bond's yield to maturity as a proxy for its expected return over a holding period of around ten years, but the rationale behind this approach is worth examining carefully. This paper explores the assumptions underlying the relationship between yield to maturity and mean return, the conditions under which the proxy holds up, and evidence that supports its use in practice. It is a useful reference for investors and advisors who rely on yield to maturity as a forecasting tool and want a clearer understanding of when and why it works.

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